By Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) boosted its third-quarter GDP growth estimate by a full percentage point, to 1.9% from 0.9%, on Wednesday after a series of economic indicators exceeded expectations.
The broker in a note cited the “above potential” September increase in private-sector employment, reflected in payroll processor ADP’s National Employment index, and the narrowing trade deficit in August, which was “stronger than our previous expectations,” wrote a team led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist.
The ADP report showed private employment grew by 208,000 last month, a 12.4% acceleration from the upwardly-revised August figure, while the Commerce Department’s report on international trade showed the import/export gap shrank in August to its narrowest reading since May 2021.
An economic cool-down is the goal of the Federal Reserve’s recent string of steep interest rate hikes, deployed to tackle decades-high inflation.
But market participants have worried the Fed’s actions to cool demand could push the economy into contraction.
A separate note released by the firm on Tuesday said it sees a 35% probability that the U.S. economy will enter recession in the next 12 months.
