Home values continue to climb year over year but are sliding from one month to the next, according to property analytics firm CoreLogic.
Home prices nationwide increased 13.5% in August compared with last year. However, prices fell 0.7% from July to August and are forecast to remain unchanged from August to September.
A few markets are especially vulnerable to price declines, CoreLogic says. Following are the places in the greatest danger of slipping in the next 12 months.
Reno, Nevada
This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)
Reno’s housing prices are well on the way to dipping over the next year. In fact, they’ve already fallen for three consecutive months.
As Sarah Scattini, president of the Reno/Sparks Association of Realtors, told the Reno Gazette Journal:
“The market in Reno-Sparks continues to cool down with fewer homes being listed each month. But it is giving more chances for people to enter the market.”
Boise City, Idaho
This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)
Boise was among the cities that most benefited from the “work at home, live anywhere” trend that started during the pandemic. Idaho’s capital city has attracted new residents from across the country.
But a reality check may be on the way: This city finished No. 1 on the list of “15 Housing Markets Overvalued by More Than 50%.”
Bellingham, Washington
This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)
The number of million-dollar homes in Whatcom County — where Bellingham is located — has doubled since 2019. Now, less than half of owner-occupied homes in this area of northwestern Washington state are valued at less than $500,000.
But those sky-high prices might be dropping back to earth soon, CoreLogic says.
Bremerton-Silverdale, Washington
This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)
Earlier this year, demand was high and inventory was low in this part of Washington state, near Seattle.
But as with so many housing markets across the nation, the script has flipped here, putting this market in great jeopardy of a price correction.
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Florida
This housing market’s likelihood of a price decline over the next 12 months: Very high (more than 70% probability)
The recent devastation in the wake of Hurricane Ian has reminded everyone that there can be a high price to pay for living in paradise. Perhaps folks who dream of moving to Florida now will have second thoughts.
Even before the storm, the Destin area of the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola saw cooling demand for local homes. It will be interesting to see whether that trend continues — or even accelerates — after the scary destruction in areas such as Sanibel and Fort Myers, farther south on the Gulf Coast.
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