NEWSZENTS: Those expecting the Russians to back away from Crimea peninsula in Ukraine must not be students of history or they must be blind to a war which had a history dated back to October 1853 to February 1856 which almost half a million people died, mostly, Russians over what was called the Crimean war which, Britain, France and Ottoman Empire destroyed the might of Russian Empire in the Crimean peninsula.
It was a battle that was fought over the control of the Black sea and Azov Sea to check mate Russia and its communication with the rest of the Europe from the sea port of Sevastopol and every attempt for Russia to expand was put on hold with the treaty of Paris of March 1856. Over ten battles could be found over this peninsula, like the Battle of Senov, Battle of Alma, Battle of Sevastopol etc. until the Yalta Conference of 1927 between the Russian Dictator, Joseph Stalin, American President Franklin D Roosevelt, and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill
In 1921 most of the ethnic Tartar group mostly Muslims and pro-western government of today were deported from then USSR by Joseph Stalin, however, in 1954 since Ukraine was part of USSR it did not matter what was the fate of Crimean peninsula, for administrative purpose this hard earned territory of Russia with blood of almost 750,000 Russian preceding the creation of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev a native of Ukraine gave the area to his native land of Ukraine, until 1991 when Ukraine became an independent state as a result of the dissolution of USSR under Gorbachev the need to question the gift of Nikita Khrushchev of the Crimea to Ukraine became necessary and Russian the original owner of the peninsula became an Indian giver, the question is if the nation would be justified to ask Crimean be given back to the country of Russian for symbolical blood of those lost in the 1953-1856 wars?
The above, is just a tip on the ice bag on why Russian will never give up on that part of Ukraine which the history, tradition, culture and might of United Nations veto power gave the nation of Russia an edge over others, today 58 percent of those living there are Russians, moreover, before the dissolution of USSR it was and still the center for all the war fleets of old Soviet Union now Russian Federation, the rest of the population, 24 percent are from Ukraine natives and 12 percent are Tartar that may be deported like Dictator Joseph Stalin did in 1927 or be killed under President Putin, a potential refugees for the western world.
Secondly, Russian President Putin belongs to the old blog who still believes President Gorbachev was wrong to have allowed President Ronald Reagan of United States of America to have used his famous speech “Tear that wall down” which led to the dissolution of USSR, President Putin, if he could have his way he will turn the hands of the clock back to what it was with all the breakaway countries back into the tight hands of Russia as USSR again.
Thirdly, the Oracle asked what is actually in there in Crimea for Russia federation? More than just a dream, it is the realty, control of the Baltic sea since 1856 treaty of Paris over Sea of Azov and Black Sea, free access to the European Markets, and a strong military presence to match the United States of America control of the region in Turkey, a strong foothold into the Mediterranean sea and a gradual return to the cold war which Gorbachev was never forgiven by the conservatives led by the President Putin in a new war strategies in which America economy may be too weak to stand another war to defend Europe like it did in the first and second world wars.
Fourthly, Russia government under Putin will never give up this time around over Crimean, because the time is right for the dreams of Russian to win back what it gave away in 1945 to Ukraine as a region of USSR then, but when US Secretary of State
President Petro Poroshenko John Kerry and his Russian counterpart met for six hours, the Oracle was wondering what they were talking about, since the body language of Russian and it military presence was an indication the meeting was just a waste of time for Russian to execute the final plan to merge Crimean back to Russian, it is like asking Britain to give up the Falkland when it went to war with Argentina, or for the American government to give up its influence over Puerto Rico in future.
Furthermore, behind all these epistles are the politics of manipulation of oil and gas industry and military might of Russia which will further exact might and presence of Russian Federation in the region, note this point from the Oracle, no amount of sanctions, military or otherwise can stop Russia from taking Crimean out of Ukraine, if the referendum fails to approve the take over Russia under President Putin a disciple of old USSR will take it by force.
United State of America, Secretary of State Kerry said, it will amount to back door annexation but the Oracle would like the former Secretary to refer to history, to support his assertion, however, the ongoing over the referendum is just a smokescreen for the actions of Russia the annexation was done several decades ago in 1945 the current one is just a confirmation of what happened in the past, Crimea peninsula is home to what it was in 1945 part of Russia. will Russia care what and how the rest of the world or NATO feels about the take over, time will tell but if the body language of Russia is an indication of what to expect the Oracle feels the President Putin does not give a damn.
The Oracle will like to state here for historical purposes by next week, Crimea peninsula, that vital of Ukraine will be just another Region within Russia Federation and by this time next year no one will mention it again, which is the way politics is played among the Super Powers and a lesson for all the breakaway countries still having some of the goldmine of old USSR, like a pound of flesh Russia under President Putin may be knocking their doors again and again.
As predicted, the Russian had her way with Crimea and the new administration of President Trump is left with messy diplomatic relations former President Barack Obama created with his inability to study history of how Crimea became part of Ukraine and how Russia decided in her wisdom or otherwise to revisit the Crimean deal after Ukraine pulled out of old USSR and romancing with NATO members with the objective of destroying the might of Russia in the Baltic Sea and a threat to her Submarines.
The Oracle will predict President Trump will not revisit the ugly mess of the past, his administration needs Russia for another mission on China, North Korea and Iran getting involve with Ukraine problem over Crimean is nothing but a distraction for this administration, time to move on.
(Except the last two paragraphs this article was first published in 2014)
Zents Kunle Sowunmi is a News York based writer and author of several books.