US Midterm Results: The task before President Trump (Part One)

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NEWSZENTS: A couple of years ago the Oracle wrote on how US Presidents with a loss of the midterm elections succeeded  including winning the second term, they all moved to the center of US politics was then the conclusion, meaning, they left their far left or far right policies to work with the opposition in the center in what could be seen as give and take in the interest of the nation.

Presidents like  Bill Clinton,  George Bush, and Barack Obama in similar situations  lost the midterm elections in the usual historical way  even worst than  President Donald  J. Trump, it is not a big deal, they all buried their pride and worked with the Congress.

However, in the case of President Trump and his GOP, the loss on Tuesday 6th midterm elections in the House was even a victory in history.

The outcome of it is even better than the time of Bill Clinton, George Bush and Obama in the numbers of seats they lost the Oracle says none of the past Presidents gained any seat except PresidentTrump who did it in the Senate with 4 seats.

How? All the past US presidents except two in the last 100 years kept the Senate and the House after the midterm elections, Bill Clinton the 42nd President  lost both Senate and the House after the mid term with even a lower job approval rating than Trump.

George  Bush of Texas the 43rd US President  lost the control of the Senate and the  House after the mid term, with a lower job approval rating, same with Barack  Obama  the 44th US President, they all lost seats and control of both Senate and House.

It will not be wrong to conclude  in history that President Trump defied the precedents, by losing fewer Houses than Bill Clinton who lost 70 in the House and 6 Senators, Obama who lost 67, and 6 Senators, Trump lost only 35 House and in his own case against precedent gained about 4 new senators.

The loss of GOP in the House could be attributed to how 40 members left the Party out of old age, resignations and even deaths, including the Speaker who just left because of family issues, all these opened the GOP to many offices to defend.

Furthermore, in the Senate, John McCain died, Senator Flake of Arizona, and Bob Crocker of Tennesee because of disagrement with President Trump failed to defend their seats and it made the Party porous.

It is also symbolic to conclude that all Democrats Senators who voted against President Trump Supreme Court nominee Justice Brett Kavanaugh  in the State he won in 2016 lost their re-election.

All these made  Donald Trump to work very hard, to defy history, he campaigned as if he was running for Senate or House himself, he knew all his policies were on the ballots, his immigration policy on illegals and the caravan migrants from Central America, tax cuts and trade deals with new NAFTA, they were all at stake, he did what he knew better like he did in 2016 without the Press, and he was able to keep the Senate with additional gains, and a loss of fewer seats in the House than any US Presidents in the last 100 years.It was a victory for him

Furthermore, the victory in the Senate put a check on the crude tactics of the Democrats, with Senator Chuk Shummer of New York on hold as minority leader.

However, since the US Congress controls the purse of the nation, without the support of it, there will be no financial resoures for the presidency for some of his plans  and it may even cost the Party in government to lose the Senate in 2020 like Clinton and Obama did if GOP is unable to work with the opposition.

By 2020, it will be tough for the GOP as 22 Senate seats will have to be defended, DNC will probably give it all to claim the Senate and make his second term misrable if he can get the 270 electoral college votes.

However, the GOP hold on the Senate still gives President Trump control and bargaining power than the past Presidents, his nominees for Judges, and other appointments will not face any opposition, unlike the current Senate with disloyal, Senators Flake, Crocker, and late McCain who voted against the Party on Obama care law, that will not be the case in the next two years.

As it is, the Oracle says Trump is not doing badly with the outcome of the midterm. What will be the next steps for him after the historical midterm elections?

What will the removal of AG Jeff Session  have on his presidency and task ahead?

Will there be probes or investigations against Trump by the Democrats in the Congress?

Try to read the part two of this post.

To be continued

Zents Sowunmi is the author of the following books: “The Gatecrasher”  Obama: Hero or enemy of capitalism? “Unequally Yoking”, “The Vultures and the Vulnerable,”  “Don’t Ask Questions” Ogun State Politics of Manipulation since 1976, they are all available on bn.com and amazon.com

 

 

 

 

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